China: China Economic Administration

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China Economic

Administration



ECONOMIC ADMINISTRATION

China has emphasized gradual, carefully sequenced reform, whereas the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe have been more attracted by spasmodic approaches. Sudden price liberalization risks inflation and currency collapse.

Overnight privatization creates economic chaos.

In Gorbachev era, Shatalin plan, which received widespread western approbation, envisaged privatization of much of Soviet industries within 500 days.

The same professors who applauded that plan would have recognize instantly that a plan to change the ownership and management of all the major firms in NY or London within less than 2 years could only result in chaos and collapse.

Sudden liberalization of prices in the context of the severe shortage of supply typical of socialism leads directly to hyperinflation.

Poland’s sudden liberalization of prices produced inflation rates in excess of 2000% in 1989.

Soviet Union experienced 91% in 1991 and 2000 in 1992

The social consequences are severe. In June 1992 Soviet farms were collapsing because new equipments now costs 70 times what it did a year ago and the price for milk has gone up only sevenfold.

Severe inflation frighten away both domestic and foreign investments, thereby destroying the country potential for economic growth.

Inflation itself can be the cause of widespread unnecessary bankruptcies

In 1993 starvation was occurring in the Biezcady region of Poland and polls showed that a majority of Polish voters had become convinced that communism was a better system.

China has liberalized prices gradually and has been careful to ensure that the price of the rice is not allowed to become so volatile to endanger the lives of subsistence level rural people.

During liberalization China has built the institutions that will enable it to control inflation, namely credit controls and bond markets. The result has been rapid growth with a manageable inflation cycle.

China has been particularly cautious about privatizations. If one privatizes before price reform has taken full effect then many firms are bankrupted because their product prices were set below market level. For instance, it is not unusual in some socialist country for prices of a commodity like coal to be set at 5-10% of market levels.

Prices liberalization means not only an instant freeing of prices, but also a network of institutions that can receive price signals, analyze trends and take appropriate action. Such a network of institution takes years to develop.

If one privatize rapidly at a time when inflation is high and growth low, create mass unemployment at just the time when the economy is least able to absorb extra workers.

Premature privatization can starve the nation’s retirees because in many of these systems pensions are paid by enterprise. Long serving employees loose the right of company housing, medical care, pension, education and they find themselves homeless. (under capitalism, at this stage, they would earned a private home).

Can also cause the collapse of a banking system forced for generation to carry loss making state enterprises by making ever larger loans to them. Efficient privatization programme requires stock market analysis to assess the value of the companies and brokerages to manage stock transactions.

Without such a system for assessing the efficiency of the companies, analyzing economic trends and trading efficiently, capitalism may not function and may produce worse results than socialism

Hence, China has a policy of delaying privatization until it has successfully:

liberalized prices

create a national pension system

provided alternative medical and education programmes

undertaken major banking reforms

and created working stock markets

No policy has been more criticized in the West than China's caution regarding privatization. No policy, however, has been more central to China's success than its gradual but steady emplacement of the foundation stones for successful privatization.

Ironically, the West has not followed the advice it gives to China: the European Community embarked on a long program of market liberalization before its members initiated widespread privatization.


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